A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
